The Tavern Take: Week of April 13, 2026
Civilian harm is now the strongest Iran argument in Tavern's dataset — 72% top performer, 41-point gap from the worst Republican message. The birthright process argument hits as hard as the policy argument. And the ad-making model most campaigns are still running guarantees stale creative before voters ever see it.
Voters Oppose Stripping Birthright Citizenship. They Oppose One Person Deciding It Even More.
New Tavern Research polling finds that opposition to Trump's birthright citizenship executive order runs 25 points deep — but opposition to one person rewriting the 14th Amendment alone runs 26. The procedural argument is pulling its own weight, independently of where voters stand on immigration.
The Cutting Room Floor – April 3, 2026
Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting.