The Cutting Room Floor – May 1, 2026
Press trust is at 0.4%. Foreign aid opposition is near-unanimous. And 79% of voters support the death penalty in principle — but only 44% back the specific DOJ expansion. This week’s cutting room floor has the numbers that didn’t fit anywhere else.
TrumpRx: Side Effects Include Nausea, Vomiting, and a Net -24.
A drug-pricing program polling at net -24 while the president sits at -12 isn’t a healthcare win — it’s a drag. Tavern’s latest data shows TrumpRx is the worst-performing policy in the survey, and the Protonix price comparison is why. Here’s what the numbers actually say about Kennedy’s HHS and who’s already gone negative.
The Redistricting Argument Democrats Are Actually Winning.
The redistricting question loses. The hypocrisy argument wins. Tavern’s latest data shows a 17-point swing between those two framings of the exact same issue — and the Virginia map fight may determine House control. Here’s the frame that’s actually working.
Hegseth Has Become a Liability That Rivals the President.
Hegseth’s net opposition (-20) is nearly as bad as Trump’s own net approval (-24). That’s not a personnel problem — it’s a presidential liability. New Tavern data shows impeachment support beating opposition by 11 points, and 48% of voters calling this a major factor in how they evaluate Trump.
After the WHCD Shooting, the Public Isn’t Choosing Between Order and Reform — They Want Both.
51% back “use all available force.” 67% want stricter gun laws. The electorate isn’t picking a side—they’re holding both.
The Tavern Take: Week of April 27, 2026
This week’s data points to a sequencing problem: voters move quickly once they’re paying attention. SCOTUS, Iran, and FISA all show the same thing—define early or lose the frame.
The SCOTUS Appointment Fight Is a Sleeping Giant. It's About to Wake Up.
Trump's SCOTUS appointment plans are already net -9. Only 6% of voters have heard about them. 49% say it's a major issue. That gap is the whole story — and it closes fast.
What the Bottom of the Iran Message Battery Tells You
Ally trust. Credibility. "Trump looks weak." These are the Iran messages some campaigns reach for first — and the ones that test dead last. The gap between best and worst is 35 points. Tavern's data breaks down exactly what's losing and why.
Trump's Two Weakest Flanks on Iran — And They Compound Each Other.
Trump's Iran strategy has two singular liabilities this week: a toll proposal voters see as corrupt (net -36, the worst margin tested) and a NATO posture they see as reckless (net -30). They're making the same argument.
The Government Can Search Your Data Without a Warrant. Voters Want That Fixed.
The government can search your data without a warrant. 62% of voters want that fixed — and Congress has 5 days to act before FISA Section 702 expires.
The Tavern Take: Week of April 13, 2026
Civilian harm is now the strongest Iran argument in Tavern's dataset — 72% top performer, 41-point gap from the worst Republican message. The birthright process argument hits as hard as the policy argument. And the ad-making model most campaigns are still running guarantees stale creative before voters ever see it.
The Human Cost of the Iran War Is Now the Argument That Wins.
Civilian harm is now the single strongest Iran frame in Tavern's message testing data — and the top-performing message scores 72 points against a 30.9-point Republican floor. Here's exactly what the winning messages say and why the accountability-plus-consequences combination is the argument to run right now.
Voters Oppose Stripping Birthright Citizenship. They Oppose One Person Deciding It Even More.
New Tavern Research polling finds that opposition to Trump's birthright citizenship executive order runs 25 points deep — but opposition to one person rewriting the 14th Amendment alone runs 26. The procedural argument is pulling its own weight, independently of where voters stand on immigration.
The Cutting Room Floor – April 3, 2026
Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting.
The Issue Campaigns Should Be Defining Before Republicans Do.
30% of voters have no opinion on Medicaid/SNAP eligibility cuts — but 46% already call it a major midterm issue. Here's why that gap is the opportunity.
The Iran Numbers Every Campaign Should Have Right Now.
The past two days of Tavern Research polling tell a consistent story. Voters aren't still making up their minds about this war. The question our message testing tried to answer this week: what's the most effective way to talk to those voters?
The Tavern Take: Week of March 30, 2026
TSA, Iran, DOJ overrides, SAVE Act—voters punish the mechanism more than the decision. This week's pattern across four major issues.
The Cutting Room Floor – Mar 27, 2026
Mail ballots at 53% major issue. FISA warrants at +34. Joe Kent: they want him out but don’t think he was wrong. Quick hits from this week.
Transparency Wins. Treatment Restrictions Lose. How Voters Are Actually Reading the SAVE Act.
Parental notification at +31. Care restrictions at −11. Voters are judging SAVE Act provisions independently—and the 42-point gap is the story.
The DOJ Override Template: The Breonna Taylor Number That Applies to Every Case That Comes Next
Political appointees overriding career prosecutors: 61% oppose, 16% support. The process is 28 points more damaging than the Breonna Taylor case dismissal itself.